Novi Pazar 2–2 Cukaricki: Result & Stats

Novi Pazar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cukaricki

B. Omoregbe 87'

D. Sadi 30'

L. Djordjevic 82'

S. Tedic 27'

4/26/2026

Super Liga · Championship Group - 33Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Novi Pazar39%

×Draw27%

Cukaricki34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchCukaricki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Novi Pazar

1.27

Cukaricki

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.22

creates per match

1.39

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Novi Pazar

1.22

Cukaricki

1.39

allows per match

Novi Pazar

0.95

Cukaricki

1.33

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.35scores more

Cukaricki-0.48scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Cukaricki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw

66%

Novi Pazar or Cukaricki

73%

Draw or Cukaricki

61%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

17%

Cukaricki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

72%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

36%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

14%

Cukaricki 1+ goals

69%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

33%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

53%

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.22 + Cukaricki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cukaricki attack 1.39 + Novi Pazar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Novi Pazar scores more

39%

level

27%

Cukaricki scores more

34%

Novi Pazar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

D. Sadi

Novi Pazar · M

7.3

Match Events

27'

S. Tedic↳ U. Miladinovic

30'

D. Sadi↳ D. Camaj

42'

Semir Alić

46'

E. Bruncevic← J. Manev

46'

L. Mijovic← A. Cisse

61'

A. Rusevic← V. Kotzebue

61'

S. Mijailovic← S. Sissoko

67'

B. Nikcevic← L. Stojanovic

67'

L. Djordjevic← O. Abramusic

68'

M. Petkovic← S. Togbe

76'

Bojica Nikčević

82'

L. Djordjevic↳ S. Mijailovic

83'

B. Omoregbe← D. Camaj

86'

Luka Đorđević

86'

Srđan Mijailović

87'

B. Omoregbe↳ A. Hadzimujovic

90+4'

M. Pavkov← S. Tedic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NoviCukaricki

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

0.61Expected Goals (xG)1.16

5Corners8

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target3

2Off Target7

4Blocked0

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

342Total Passes419

239Accurate Passes327

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0