Cukaricki 1–1 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Novi Pazar

M. Djokovic 30'

I. Davidovic 58'

10/19/2025

Super Liga · Round 12Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cukaricki46%

×Draw26%

Novi Pazar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Cukaricki

1.47

Novi Pazar

1.10

Cukaricki creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.73

1.47

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.29

Novi Pazar

0.73

allows per match

Cukaricki

1.47

Novi Pazar

1.65

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.54scores more

Novi Pazar+0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

72%

Cukaricki or Novi Pazar

74%

Draw or Novi Pazar

54%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

22%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

77%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

43%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

18%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

67%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

30%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

62%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 6 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Novi Pazar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

Novi Pazar attack 0.73 + Cukaricki defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cukaricki scores more

46%

level

26%

Novi Pazar scores more

28%

Cukaricki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Djokovic

Cukaricki · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

Sambou SissokoGoal cancelled

30'

M. Djokovic

32'

Nenad TomovićGoal confirmed

40'

Sambou Sissoko

46'

F. Matijasevic← L. Tufegdzic

46'

J. Manev← E. Opara

46'

M. Petkovic← V. Mirosavic

58'

Filip Matijašević

58'

I. Davidovic↳ N. Miletic

71'

D. Jovancic← S. Sissoko

71'

B. Nikcevic← M. Cvetkovic

71'

M. Pavkov← U. Miladinovic

79'

Dušan Jovančić

84'

S. Alic← I. Davidovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CukarickiNovi

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots10

9Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target4

9Off Target5

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

364Total Passes329

284Accurate Passes267

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3