Novi Pazar 2–2 Bezanija: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Novi Pazar

FT

2 – 2

Bezanija

9/8/2018

Prva Liga · Round 6Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Novi Pazar46%

×Draw27%

Bezanija27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchBezanija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.03

Novi Pazar

1.43

Bezanija

1.03

Novi Pazar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Novi Pazar

1.27

Bezanija

1.00

allows per match

Novi Pazar

1.06

Bezanija

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Bezanija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw

73%

Novi Pazar or Bezanija

73%

Draw or Bezanija

54%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

22%

Bezanija wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

76%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

42%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

17%

Bezanija 1+ goals

64%

Bezanija 2+ goals

28%

Bezanija 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

63%

Bezanija (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.27 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bezanija attack 1.00 + Novi Pazar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novi Pazar scores more

46%

level

27%

Bezanija scores more

27%

Novi Pazar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff