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Bezanija vs Novi Pazar — Prva Liga 2018

Bezanija
Bezanija
FT
2 – 0
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
12/5/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 21Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bezanija58%
×Draw24%
Novi Pazar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezanija
1.68
Novi Pazar
0.82

Bezanija creates 105% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bezanija
1.61
Novi Pazar
0.53

allows per match

Bezanija
1.11
Novi Pazar
1.74

finishing

Bezanija+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezanija ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bezanija or draw
82%
Bezanija or Novi Pazar
76%
Draw or Novi Pazar
42%

Winning margin

Bezanija wins by 2+
32%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bezanija 1+ goals
81%
Bezanija 2+ goals
50%
Bezanija 3+ goals
24%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
56%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
20%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bezanija (draw refunded)
76%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezanija at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezanija attack 1.61 + Novi Pazar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Novi Pazar attack 0.53 + Bezanija defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bezanija scores more
58%
level
24%
Novi Pazar scores more
18%

Bezanija at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bezanija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Bezanija 2–0 Novi Pazar

Bezanija beat Novi Pazar 2-0 in Prva Liga on December 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd).