Novelda 0–2 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Novelda

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hércules II

11/28/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio La Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Novelda42%

×Draw30%

Hércules II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoveldaExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

Novelda

1.19

Hércules II

0.92

Novelda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

1.17

creates per match

0.81

1.03

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Novelda

1.17

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Novelda

1.03

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novelda+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novelda ↓

Hércules II →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Novelda or draw

72%

Novelda or Hércules II

70%

Draw or Hércules II

58%

Winning margin

Novelda wins by 2+

18%

Hércules II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Novelda 1+ goals

70%

Novelda 2+ goals

33%

Novelda 3+ goals

12%

Hércules II 1+ goals

60%

Hércules II 2+ goals

23%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Novelda (draw refunded)

60%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Novelda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Novelda attack 1.17 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Novelda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Novelda scores more

42%

level

30%

Hércules II scores more

28%

Novelda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Novelda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff