Hércules II 1–1 Novelda: Result & Stats

Hércules II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novelda

2/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Campo de Fútbol Divina Pastora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hércules II45%

×Draw27%

Novelda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hércules IIExpected goals in this matchNovelda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.08

Hércules II

1.41

Novelda

1.08

Hércules II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

1.12

creates per match

1.11

1.06

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hércules II

1.12

Novelda

1.11

allows per match

Hércules II

1.06

Novelda

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par

Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Novelda →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw

71%

Hércules II or Novelda

73%

Draw or Novelda

55%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+

21%

Novelda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals

76%

Hércules II 2+ goals

41%

Hércules II 3+ goals

17%

Novelda 1+ goals

66%

Novelda 2+ goals

29%

Novelda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)

61%

Novelda (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Novelda attack 1.11 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hércules II scores more

45%

level

27%

Novelda scores more

29%

Hércules II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff