Novelda 2–0 Benicarló: Result & Stats

Novelda

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benicarló

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio La Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Novelda38%

×Draw29%

Benicarló33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoveldaExpected goals in this matchBenicarló

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Novelda

1.19

Benicarló

1.08

Novelda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.17

creates per match

1.14

1.03

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Novelda

1.17

Benicarló

1.14

allows per match

Novelda

1.03

Benicarló

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novelda+0.00on par

Benicarló+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novelda ↓

Benicarló →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Novelda or draw

67%

Novelda or Benicarló

71%

Draw or Benicarló

62%

Winning margin

Novelda wins by 2+

16%

Benicarló wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Novelda 1+ goals

70%

Novelda 2+ goals

33%

Novelda 3+ goals

12%

Benicarló 1+ goals

66%

Benicarló 2+ goals

29%

Benicarló 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Novelda (draw refunded)

54%

Benicarló (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Novelda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Benicarló away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Novelda attack 1.17 + Benicarló defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Benicarló attack 1.14 + Novelda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Novelda scores more

38%

level

29%

Benicarló scores more

33%

Novelda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Novelda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff