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Benicarló vs Novelda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Benicarló
Benicarló
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novelda
Novelda
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 7Camp de futbol de Benicarló

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Benicarló41%
×Draw30%
Novelda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benicarló
1.17
Novelda
0.95

Benicarló creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Benicarló
0.64
Novelda
1.11

allows per match

Benicarló
0.79
Novelda
1.70

finishing

Benicarló+0.00on par
Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benicarló ↓

Novelda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Benicarló or draw
70%
Benicarló or Novelda
70%
Draw or Novelda
59%

Winning margin

Benicarló wins by 2+
17%
Novelda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benicarló 1+ goals
69%
Benicarló 2+ goals
33%
Benicarló 3+ goals
11%
Novelda 1+ goals
61%
Novelda 2+ goals
25%
Novelda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Benicarló (draw refunded)
58%
Novelda (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benicarló at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benicarló attack 0.64 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.17

Novelda attack 1.11 + Benicarló defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benicarló scores more
41%
level
30%
Novelda scores more
30%

Benicarló at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benicarló will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Benicarló 1–0 Novelda

Benicarló beat Novelda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Benicarló in Benicarló.