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Nové Zámky W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
3 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
K. Andruskova 73'
K. Palova 30'
S. Deszathova 5'
A. Strubelova 49'
9/4/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 6Štadión na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W49%
×Draw19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
2.60
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.11

Nové Zámky W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
68%
Nové Zámky W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
81%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
51%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
30%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
92%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
73%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
47%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
88%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
62%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
60%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.60

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
49%
level
19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
32%

Nové Zámky W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nové Zámky W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Deszathova
30'
K. Palova
49'
A. Strubelova
73'
K. Andruskova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Nové Zámky W beat Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3-1 in I Liga - Women on September 4, 2021.

Goals: S. Deszathova (5'), K. Palova (30'), A. Strubelova (49'), K. Andruskova (73').

The match was played at Štadión na Sihoti in Nové Zámky.