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Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Nové Zámky W — I Liga - Women 2020

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
V. Dunajska 69', 63'
D. Paterova 46', 32'
L. Mazuchova 12'
A. Brissova 9'
G. J. Kovancikova 17'
8/13/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 3Štadión ŠKF Kremnička

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W63%
×Draw17%
Nové Zámky W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.04
Nové Zámky W
1.72

Dukla Banská Bystrica W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.58
Nové Zámky W
0.73

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.71
Nové Zámky W
4.50

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par
Nové Zámky W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica W ↓

Nové Zámky W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or draw
80%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W or Nové Zámky W
83%
Draw or Nové Zámky W
37%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
44%
Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
95%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
80%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
57%
Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
82%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
51%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
76%
Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.71 · 55 matches

Nové Zámky W away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.58 + Nové Zámky W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.04

Nové Zámky W attack 0.73 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
63%
level
17%
Nové Zámky W scores more
20%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Brissova
12'
L. Mazuchova
17'
G. J. Kovancikova
32'
D. Paterova
46'
D. Paterova
63'
V. Dunajska
69'
V. Dunajska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Dukla Banská Bystrica W 6–1 Nové Zámky W

Dukla Banská Bystrica W beat Nové Zámky W 6-1 in I Liga - Women on August 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Brissova (9'), L. Mazuchova (12'), G. J. Kovancikova (17'), D. Paterova (32', 46'), V. Dunajska (63', 69').

The match was played at Štadión ŠKF Kremnička in Banská Bystrica.