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Nové Zámky vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
FT
2 – 1
Nitra II
Nitra II
9/20/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 7Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nové Zámky54%
×Draw22%
Nitra II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky
1.97
Nitra II
1.27

Nové Zámky creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky
1.51
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Nové Zámky
1.68
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw
75%
Nové Zámky or Nitra II
78%
Draw or Nitra II
46%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+
31%
Nitra II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals
86%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
58%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
31%
Nitra II 1+ goals
72%
Nitra II 2+ goals
36%
Nitra II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
69%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nové Zámky scores more
54%
level
22%
Nitra II scores more
25%

Nové Zámky at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky vs Nitra II

Nové Zámky beat Nitra II 2-1 in 3. liga - West on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Ladislava Gancznera in Nové Zámky.