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Nitra II vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra II
Nitra II
CANC
14:00
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
4/25/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nitra II58%
×Draw19%
Nové Zámky23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra II
2.43
Nové Zámky
1.47

Nitra II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nitra II
2.57
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

Nitra II
2.14
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

Nitra II+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra II ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nitra II or draw
77%
Nitra II or Nové Zámky
81%
Draw or Nové Zámky
42%

Winning margin

Nitra II wins by 2+
37%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nitra II 1+ goals
91%
Nitra II 2+ goals
69%
Nitra II 3+ goals
43%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
77%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
43%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nitra II (draw refunded)
72%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra II attack 2.57 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.43

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Nitra II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nitra II scores more
58%
level
19%
Nové Zámky scores more
23%

Nitra II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nitra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nitra II face Nové Zámky (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Nitra II hosting Nové Zámky. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nitra II host Nové Zámky at Štadión pod Zoborom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.