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Nové Zámky vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
CANC
15:00
Marcelová
Marcelová
6/13/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nové Zámky45%
×Draw23%
Marcelová32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky
1.77
Marcelová
1.48

Nové Zámky creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky
1.51
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Nové Zámky
1.68
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw
68%
Nové Zámky or Marcelová
77%
Draw or Marcelová
55%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+
24%
Marcelová wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals
83%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
53%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
26%
Marcelová 1+ goals
77%
Marcelová 2+ goals
43%
Marcelová 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
58%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.77

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nové Zámky scores more
45%
level
23%
Marcelová scores more
32%

Nové Zámky at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nové Zámky vs Marcelová — Match Preview

Nové Zámky face Marcelová on June 13, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.