Marcelová 3–1 Nové Zámky: Result & Stats

Marcelová

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nové Zámky

6/19/2021

3. liga - West · West - 14Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marcelová61%

×Draw23%

Nové Zámky16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarcelováExpected goals in this matchNové Zámky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.78

Marcelová

1.77

Nové Zámky

0.78

Marcelová creates 127% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 70 away

1.24

creates per match

0.80

0.76

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Marcelová

1.24

Nové Zámky

0.80

allows per match

Marcelová

0.76

Nové Zámky

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Nové Zámky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw

84%

Marcelová or Nové Zámky

77%

Draw or Nové Zámky

39%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+

35%

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals

83%

Marcelová 2+ goals

53%

Marcelová 3+ goals

26%

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

54%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

18%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)

79%

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marcelová scores more

61%

level

23%

Nové Zámky scores more

16%

Marcelová at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff