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Nové Zámky vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
6/12/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nové Zámky46%
×Draw25%
Lednické Rovne30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky
1.61
Lednické Rovne
1.25

Nové Zámky creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky
1.51
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Nové Zámky
1.68
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw
70%
Nové Zámky or Lednické Rovne
75%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
54%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+
23%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals
80%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
48%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
22%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
71%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
36%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
61%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nové Zámky scores more
46%
level
25%
Lednické Rovne scores more
30%

Nové Zámky at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky vs Lednické Rovne

Nové Zámky beat Lednické Rovne 2-1 in 3. liga - West on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Ladislava Gancznera in Nové Zámky.