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Lednické Rovne vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
4/9/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne45%
×Draw24%
Nové Zámky31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.67
Nové Zámky
1.34

Lednické Rovne creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
69%
Lednické Rovne or Nové Zámky
76%
Draw or Nové Zámky
55%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
24%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
81%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
50%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
23%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
74%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
39%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
59%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
45%
level
24%
Nové Zámky scores more
31%

Lednické Rovne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lednické Rovne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lednické Rovne vs Nové Zámky

Lednické Rovne and Nové Zámky drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.