Nové Zámky 3–2 Hamsik Academy: Result & Stats

Nové Zámky

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Hamsik Academy

8/24/2024

3. liga - West · West - 4Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nové Zámky36%

×Draw24%

Hamsik Academy40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové ZámkyExpected goals in this matchHamsik Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.56

Nové Zámky

1.46

Hamsik Academy

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

1.51

creates per match

1.44

1.68

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Nové Zámky

1.51

Hamsik Academy

1.44

allows per match

Nové Zámky

1.68

Hamsik Academy

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Hamsik Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw

60%

Nové Zámky or Hamsik Academy

76%

Draw or Hamsik Academy

64%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

17%

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

77%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

43%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

18%

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals

79%

Hamsik Academy 2+ goals

46%

Hamsik Academy 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

47%

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nové Zámky scores more

36%

level

24%

Hamsik Academy scores more

40%

Hamsik Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff