Hamsik Academy 5–0 Nové Zámky: Result & Stats

Hamsik Academy

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nové Zámky

10/8/2022

3. liga - West · West - 10Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hamsik Academy59%

×Draw23%

Nové Zámky18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamsik AcademyExpected goals in this matchNové Zámky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.85

Hamsik Academy

1.75

Nové Zámky

0.85

Hamsik Academy creates 106% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

1.20

creates per match

0.80

0.91

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Hamsik Academy

1.20

Nové Zámky

0.80

allows per match

Hamsik Academy

0.91

Nové Zámky

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Nové Zámky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw

82%

Hamsik Academy or Nové Zámky

77%

Draw or Nové Zámky

41%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+

33%

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals

83%

Hamsik Academy 2+ goals

52%

Hamsik Academy 3+ goals

25%

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

57%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

21%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)

77%

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more

59%

level

23%

Nové Zámky scores more

18%

Hamsik Academy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff