Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3–1 Marcelová: Result & Stats

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

FT

3 – 1

Marcelová

9/15/2021

3. liga - West · West - 17Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom47%

×Draw23%

Marcelová30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Mesto nad VáhomExpected goals in this matchMarcelová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.42

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.83

Marcelová

1.42

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 24 away

1.63

creates per match

1.29

1.54

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.63

Marcelová

1.29

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.54

Marcelová

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Marcelová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw

70%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Marcelová

77%

Draw or Marcelová

53%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

26%

Marcelová wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

84%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

54%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

28%

Marcelová 1+ goals

76%

Marcelová 2+ goals

41%

Marcelová 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

61%

Marcelová (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

47%

level

23%

Marcelová scores more

30%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff