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Marcelová vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Marcelová
Marcelová
FT
1 – 1
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
10/4/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 9Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marcelová51%
×Draw26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcelová
1.50
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
0.92

Marcelová creates 63% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 54 away

creates per match

Marcelová
1.24
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Marcelová
0.76
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw
77%
Marcelová or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
74%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
49%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+
26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals
78%
Marcelová 2+ goals
44%
Marcelová 3+ goals
19%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
60%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)
69%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Marcelová scores more
51%
level
26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
23%

Marcelová at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcelová vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Marcelová and Nové Mesto nad Váhom drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Štadion FK Marcelová in Marcelová.