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Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
9/2/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom34%
×Draw26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.31
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.44

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.63
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.54
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw
60%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Lokomotíva Zvolen
74%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
66%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
73%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
38%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
46%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
34%
level
26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
40%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3-0 in 3. liga - West on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión AFC Považan in Nové Mesto nad Váhom.