Lokomotíva Zvolen 3–1 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Lokomotíva Zvolen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

3/29/2024

3. liga - West · West - 20Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen58%

×Draw22%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotíva ZvolenExpected goals in this matchNové Mesto nad Váhom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.00

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.88

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.00

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

2.00

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.07

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.93

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw

80%

Lokomotíva Zvolen or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

78%

Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

42%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

34%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

85%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

56%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

29%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

63%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

26%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

74%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 2.00 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

58%

level

22%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

20%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff