Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3–2 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

4/6/2024

3. liga - West · West - 21Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom44%

×Draw25%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Mesto nad VáhomExpected goals in this matchBaník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.52

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.22

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

1.63

creates per match

0.90

1.54

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.63

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.90

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.54

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw

69%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

75%

Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

56%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

22%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

78%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

45%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

20%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

70%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

34%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

59%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

44%

level

25%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

31%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff