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Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
9/9/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom60%
×Draw22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.86
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
0.91

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 104% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 54 away

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.97
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.74
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw
82%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
78%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
40%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+
35%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals
84%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals
55%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals
28%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
60%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)
77%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more
60%
level
22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
18%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 5–2 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 5-2 in 3. liga - West on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión OFK Baník in Lehota pod Vtáčnikom.