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Novaci vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Novaci
Novaci
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
10/19/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Novaci45%
×Draw28%
Bashkimi Kumanovo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novaci
1.31
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.96

Novaci creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Novaci
1.56
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.97

allows per match

Novaci
0.96
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.07

finishing

Novaci+0.00on par
Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novaci ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Novaci or draw
73%
Novaci or Bashkimi Kumanovo
72%
Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo
55%

Winning margin

Novaci wins by 2+
21%
Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Novaci 1+ goals
73%
Novaci 2+ goals
38%
Novaci 3+ goals
14%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
62%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
25%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Novaci (draw refunded)
62%
Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novaci at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novaci attack 1.56 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Novaci defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Novaci scores more
45%
level
28%
Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
27%

Novaci at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Novaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Novaci 0–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo

Novaci and Bashkimi Kumanovo drew 0-0 in Second League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Novatsi.