Bashkimi Kumanovo 1–0 Novaci: Result & Stats

Bashkimi Kumanovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Novaci

3/9/2024

Second League · Round 20Milano Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo54%

×Draw24%

Novaci22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bashkimi KumanovoExpected goals in this matchNovaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.00

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.70

Novaci

1.00

Bashkimi Kumanovo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.73

Novaci

1.00

allows per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.00

Novaci

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Novaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashkimi Kumanovo ↓

Novaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw

78%

Bashkimi Kumanovo or Novaci

76%

Draw or Novaci

46%

Winning margin

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+

29%

Novaci wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals

82%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals

51%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals

24%

Novaci 1+ goals

63%

Novaci 2+ goals

26%

Novaci 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)

71%

Novaci (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Novaci away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.73 + Novaci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Novaci attack 1.00 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more

54%

level

24%

Novaci scores more

22%

Bashkimi Kumanovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bashkimi Kumanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff