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Nova Iguaçu vs Olaria — Copa Rio 2026

Nova Iguaçu
Nova Iguaçuadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olaria
Olaria
Xandinho 52'
8/13/2025Copa RioCopa Rio · Round of 16Estádio Jânio de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nova Iguaçu35%
×Draw32%
Olaria32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nova Iguaçu
0.95
Olaria
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nova Iguaçu
1.20
Olaria
1.00

allows per match

Nova Iguaçu
0.80
Olaria
0.71

finishing

Nova Iguaçu+0.00on par
Olaria+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Iguaçu ↓

Olaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nova Iguaçu or draw
68%
Nova Iguaçu or Olaria
68%
Draw or Olaria
65%

Winning margin

Nova Iguaçu wins by 2+
13%
Olaria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nova Iguaçu 1+ goals
61%
Nova Iguaçu 2+ goals
25%
Nova Iguaçu 3+ goals
7%
Olaria 1+ goals
59%
Olaria 2+ goals
23%
Olaria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nova Iguaçu (draw refunded)
52%
Olaria (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Iguaçu at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Olaria away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Iguaçu attack 1.20 + Olaria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Olaria attack 1.00 + Nova Iguaçu defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nova Iguaçu scores more
35%
level
32%
Olaria scores more
32%

Nova Iguaçu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nova Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
Xandinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nova Iguaçu vs Olaria

Nova Iguaçu beat Olaria 1-0 in Copa Rio on August 13, 2025.

Goals: Xandinho (52').

The match was played at Estádio Jânio de Moraes in Nova Iguaçu, Rio de Janeiro.