Nova Iguaçu 2–2 Olaria: Result & Stats | Copa Rio

Nova Iguaçu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Olaria

M. Alegria 54'

Borgheti 10'

M. Rangel 39'

L. Xandinho 25'

9/20/2023

Copa Rio · Quarter-finalsCentro de Treinamento do Nova Iguaçu Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nova Iguaçu35%

×Draw32%

Olaria32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova IguaçuExpected goals in this matchOlaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.90

Nova Iguaçu

0.95

Olaria

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Nova Iguaçu

1.20

Olaria

1.00

allows per match

Nova Iguaçu

0.80

Olaria

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Iguaçu+0.00on par

Olaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Iguaçu ↓

Olaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nova Iguaçu or draw

68%

Nova Iguaçu or Olaria

68%

Draw or Olaria

65%

Winning margin

Nova Iguaçu wins by 2+

13%

Olaria wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nova Iguaçu 1+ goals

61%

Nova Iguaçu 2+ goals

25%

Nova Iguaçu 3+ goals

7%

Olaria 1+ goals

59%

Olaria 2+ goals

23%

Olaria 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nova Iguaçu (draw refunded)

52%

Olaria (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Iguaçu at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Olaria away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Iguaçu attack 1.20 + Olaria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Olaria attack 1.00 + Nova Iguaçu defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nova Iguaçu scores more

35%

level

32%

Olaria scores more

32%

Nova Iguaçu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nova Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Borgheti

25'

L. Xandinho

39'

M. Rangel

54'

M. Alegria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff