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Nouvelle Génération vs Diables Noirs — League #844 2026

Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
FT
0 – 1
Diables Noirs
Diables Noirs
4/22/2023League #844League #844 · Round 21Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nouvelle Génération33%
×Draw31%
Diables Noirs36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouvelle Génération
0.95
Diables Noirs
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nouvelle Génération
0.64
Diables Noirs
0.50

allows per match

Nouvelle Génération
1.50
Diables Noirs
1.25

finishing

Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par
Diables Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouvelle Génération ↓

Diables Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nouvelle Génération or draw
64%
Nouvelle Génération or Diables Noirs
69%
Draw or Diables Noirs
67%

Winning margin

Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
12%
Diables Noirs wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
61%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
25%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
7%
Diables Noirs 1+ goals
63%
Diables Noirs 2+ goals
26%
Diables Noirs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
48%
Diables Noirs (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouvelle Génération at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Diables Noirs away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.64 + Diables Noirs defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Diables Noirs attack 0.50 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nouvelle Génération scores more
33%
level
31%
Diables Noirs scores more
36%

Diables Noirs at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Diables Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: Nouvelle Génération 0–1 Diables Noirs

Diables Noirs beat Nouvelle Génération 1-0 in League #844 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.