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Diables Noirs vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

Diables Noirs
Diables Noirs
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
11/16/2022League #844League #844 · Round 2Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Diables Noirs58%
×Draw25%
Nouvelle Génération17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diables Noirs
1.61
Nouvelle Génération
0.73

Diables Noirs creates 121% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Diables Noirs
1.67
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

Diables Noirs
0.67
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

Diables Noirs+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diables Noirs ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diables Noirs or draw
83%
Diables Noirs or Nouvelle Génération
75%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
42%

Winning margin

Diables Noirs wins by 2+
32%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Diables Noirs 1+ goals
80%
Diables Noirs 2+ goals
48%
Diables Noirs 3+ goals
22%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
52%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
17%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Diables Noirs (draw refunded)
78%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diables Noirs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diables Noirs attack 1.67 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + Diables Noirs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Diables Noirs scores more
58%
level
25%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
17%

Diables Noirs at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Diables Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: Diables Noirs 0–0 Nouvelle Génération

Diables Noirs and Nouvelle Génération drew 0-0 in League #844 on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.