Nouakchott King's 1–2 Nouakchott Academie

Nouakchott King's

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nouakchott Academie

5/7/2026

Premier League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott King's36%

×Draw32%

Nouakchott Academie32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nouakchott King'sExpected goals in this matchNouakchott Academie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.88

Nouakchott King's

0.96

Nouakchott Academie

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

0.85

0.91

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

Nouakchott King's

1.38

Nouakchott Academie

0.85

allows per match

Nouakchott King's

0.91

Nouakchott Academie

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott King's ↓

Nouakchott Academie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nouakchott King's or draw

68%

Nouakchott King's or Nouakchott Academie

68%

Draw or Nouakchott Academie

64%

Winning margin

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+

13%

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals

62%

Nouakchott King's 2+ goals

25%

Nouakchott King's 3+ goals

7%

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals

59%

Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals

22%

Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)

53%

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott King's at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Nouakchott Academie away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott King's attack 1.38 + Nouakchott Academie defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.96

Nouakchott Academie attack 0.85 + Nouakchott King's defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nouakchott King's scores more

36%

level

32%

Nouakchott Academie scores more

32%

Nouakchott King's at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff