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Nouakchott Academie vs Nouakchott King's — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
12/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie43%
×Draw26%
Nouakchott King's31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott Academie
1.44
Nouakchott King's
1.19

Nouakchott Academie creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.62
Nouakchott King's
1.23

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.15
Nouakchott King's
1.25

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par
Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

Nouakchott King's →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw
69%
Nouakchott Academie or Nouakchott King's
74%
Draw or Nouakchott King's
57%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
21%
Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
76%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
42%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
18%
Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
70%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
33%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
58%
Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more
43%
level
26%
Nouakchott King's scores more
31%

Nouakchott Academie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouakchott Academie vs Nouakchott King's

Nouakchott Academie beat Nouakchott King's 2-0 in Premier League on December 20, 2025.