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Nouakchott King's vs Gendrim — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gendrim
Gendrim
12/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Nouakchott King's45%
×Draw30%
Gendrim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott King's
1.21
Gendrim
0.83

Nouakchott King's creates 46% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 54 away

creates per match

Nouakchott King's
1.38
Gendrim
0.76

allows per match

Nouakchott King's
0.91
Gendrim
1.04

finishing

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par
Gendrim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott King's ↓

Gendrim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nouakchott King's or draw
75%
Nouakchott King's or Gendrim
70%
Draw or Gendrim
55%

Winning margin

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
20%
Gendrim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
70%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
34%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
12%
Gendrim 1+ goals
56%
Gendrim 2+ goals
20%
Gendrim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
64%
Gendrim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott King's at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Gendrim away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott King's attack 1.38 + Gendrim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gendrim attack 0.76 + Nouakchott King's defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nouakchott King's scores more
45%
level
30%
Gendrim scores more
25%

Nouakchott King's at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouakchott King's vs Gendrim

Nouakchott King's beat Gendrim 2-1 in Premier League on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.