Gendrim 1–1 Nouakchott King's: Result & Stats

Gendrim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nouakchott King's

10/4/2025

Premier League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gendrim34%

×Draw29%

Nouakchott King's38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GendrimExpected goals in this matchNouakchott King's

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.15

Gendrim

1.07

Nouakchott King's

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 77 away

0.89

creates per match

1.23

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gendrim

0.89

Nouakchott King's

1.23

allows per match

Gendrim

1.06

Nouakchott King's

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Nouakchott King's →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw

62%

Gendrim or Nouakchott King's

71%

Draw or Nouakchott King's

66%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+

13%

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals

66%

Gendrim 2+ goals

29%

Gendrim 3+ goals

9%

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals

68%

Nouakchott King's 2+ goals

32%

Nouakchott King's 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)

47%

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gendrim scores more

34%

level

29%

Nouakchott King's scores more

38%

Nouakchott King's at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff