Nouakchott Academie 1–2 N'Zidane: Result & Stats

Nouakchott Academie

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

N'Zidane

Unknown 47'

Unknown 83', 14'

11/22/2025

Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie50%

×Draw25%

N'Zidane25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nouakchott AcademieExpected goals in this matchN'Zidane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.07

Nouakchott Academie

1.63

N'Zidane

1.07

Nouakchott Academie creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie

1.62

N'Zidane

1.00

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie

1.15

N'Zidane

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

N'Zidane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

N'Zidane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw

75%

Nouakchott Academie or N'Zidane

75%

Draw or N'Zidane

50%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+

27%

N'Zidane wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals

80%

Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals

48%

Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals

22%

N'Zidane 1+ goals

66%

N'Zidane 2+ goals

29%

N'Zidane 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)

67%

N'Zidane (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

N'Zidane away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + N'Zidane defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

N'Zidane attack 1.00 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more

50%

level

25%

N'Zidane scores more

25%

Nouakchott Academie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

47'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff