Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nouakchott Academie vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ksar
Ksar
G. Yao 75' (OG)
H. Diarra 45'
3/14/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie48%
×Draw26%
Ksar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott Academie
1.48
Ksar
1.00

Nouakchott Academie creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.62
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.15
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw
74%
Nouakchott Academie or Ksar
74%
Draw or Ksar
52%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
24%
Ksar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
77%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
43%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
19%
Ksar 1+ goals
63%
Ksar 2+ goals
26%
Ksar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
65%
Ksar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ksar attack 0.86 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more
48%
level
26%
Ksar scores more
26%

Nouakchott Academie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
H. Diarra
75'
G. YaoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouakchott Academie 2–0 Ksar

Nouakchott Academie beat Ksar 2-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2026.

Goals: H. Diarra (45'), G. Yao (75' o.g.).