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Ksar vs Nouakchott Academie — Premier League 2020

Ksar
Ksar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
11/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksar23%
×Draw31%
Nouakchott Academie46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksar
0.70
Nouakchott Academie
1.13

Nouakchott Academie creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ksar
0.85
Nouakchott Academie
0.85

allows per match

Ksar
1.41
Nouakchott Academie
0.54

finishing

Ksar+0.00on par
Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksar ↓

Nouakchott Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ksar or draw
54%
Ksar or Nouakchott Academie
69%
Draw or Nouakchott Academie
77%

Winning margin

Ksar wins by 2+
6%
Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ksar 1+ goals
50%
Ksar 2+ goals
16%
Ksar 3+ goals
3%
Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
68%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
31%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ksar (draw refunded)
33%
Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksar at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

Nouakchott Academie away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksar attack 0.85 + Nouakchott Academie defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Nouakchott Academie attack 0.85 + Ksar defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ksar scores more
23%
level
31%
Nouakchott Academie scores more
46%

Nouakchott Academie at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ksar 0–2 Nouakchott Academie

Nouakchott Academie beat Ksar 2-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2025.