Nouadhibou 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns: Result & Stats

Nouadhibou

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mamelodi Sundowns

2/24/2024

CAF Champions League · Group A - 5Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nouadhibou31%

×Draw29%

Mamelodi Sundowns40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NouadhibouExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.17

Nouadhibou

1.00

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.17

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

1.14

creates per match

1.62

0.71

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Nouadhibou

1.14

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.62

allows per match

Nouadhibou

0.71

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw

60%

Nouadhibou or Mamelodi Sundowns

71%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

69%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

12%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

63%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

26%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

8%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

69%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

33%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

44%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.14 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.62 + Nouadhibou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nouadhibou scores more

31%

level

29%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

40%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff