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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Nouadhibou — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
11/26/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 1Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns67%
×Draw22%
Nouadhibou11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.75
Nouadhibou
0.54

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 224% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
Nouadhibou
0.57

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
Nouadhibou
1.43

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
89%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Nouadhibou
78%
Draw or Nouadhibou
33%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
39%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
52%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
25%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
42%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
10%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
86%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Nouadhibou defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nouadhibou attack 0.57 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
67%
level
22%
Nouadhibou scores more
11%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Nouadhibou

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Nouadhibou 3-0 in CAF Champions League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.