Nouadhibou 3–1 ES Setif: Result & Stats

Nouadhibou

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ES Setif

H. Tanjy 75', 54'

M. Khalil 57'

A. Deghmoum 41'

10/17/2021

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nouadhibou58%

×Draw27%

ES Setif15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NouadhibouExpected goals in this matchES Setif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.57

Nouadhibou

1.42

ES Setif

0.57

Nouadhibou creates 149% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

0.43

0.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Nouadhibou

1.14

ES Setif

0.43

allows per match

Nouadhibou

0.71

ES Setif

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

ES Setif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw

85%

Nouadhibou or ES Setif

73%

Draw or ES Setif

42%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

29%

ES Setif wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

76%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

41%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

17%

ES Setif 1+ goals

43%

ES Setif 2+ goals

11%

ES Setif 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

80%

ES Setif (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.14 + ES Setif defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

ES Setif attack 0.43 + Nouadhibou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nouadhibou scores more

58%

level

27%

ES Setif scores more

15%

Nouadhibou at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

A. Deghmoum

51'

F. Faidine← D. Kalonji

54'

H. Tanjy

57'

M. Khalil

70'

A. Chighaly← M. MChangama

70'

R. Benayad← M. Bakrar

75'

H. Tanjy

85'

Y. Dali← A. Benbelaid

88'

A. Djabou← A. Deghmoum

89'

A. M'bark el id← M. Soueid

90+6'

Riad Benayad

Nouadhibou

ES

1

18

13

20

33

14

7

6

21

▼

Benbelaid

15

⚽

▼

Deghmoum

32

▼

Bakrar

22

Diop

2

▼

15

20

14

3

23

▼

Soueid

5

Mouhsine

26

▼

M'Changam

11

⚽

Khalil

9

⚽2

Tanjy

Manager: M. Njoya

51'▲F. Faidine←▼D. Kalonji

70'▲A. Chighaly←▼M. MChangama

89'▲A. M'bark el id←▼M. Soueid

Nouadhibou substitutes

25Faidine29Chighaly6id10Teguedi17Dépodé21Mohamed30Ndiaye4Abd27Oubeid

Manager: N. Kouki

70'▲R. Benayad←▼M. Bakrar

85'▲Y. Dali←▼A. Benbelaid

88'▲A. Djabou←▼A. Deghmoum

ES Setif substitutes

9Benayad19Dali10Djabou24Hachoud8Ferhani31Fellahi34Darfalou30Boudiaf28Lomotey

CAF Champions League: Nouadhibou 3–1 ES Setif

Nouadhibou beat ES Setif 3-1 in CAF Champions League on October 17, 2021.

Goals: A. Deghmoum (41'), H. Tanjy (54', 75'), M. Khalil (57').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.

Nouadhibou vs ES Setif — CAF Champions League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

CAF Champions League: Nouadhibou 3–1 ES Setif