ES Setif 2–0 Nouadhibou: Result & Stats

ES Setif

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nouadhibou

K. Darfalou 84'

A. Deghmoum 44'

10/24/2021

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ES Setif60%

×Draw25%

Nouadhibou15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES SetifExpected goals in this matchNouadhibou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.64

ES Setif

1.57

Nouadhibou

0.64

ES Setif creates 145% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

0.57

0.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

ES Setif

1.71

Nouadhibou

0.57

allows per match

ES Setif

0.71

Nouadhibou

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

Nouadhibou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw

85%

ES Setif or Nouadhibou

75%

Draw or Nouadhibou

40%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+

32%

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals

79%

ES Setif 2+ goals

46%

ES Setif 3+ goals

21%

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

47%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

14%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)

80%

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.71 + Nouadhibou defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Nouadhibou attack 0.57 + ES Setif defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ES Setif scores more

60%

level

25%

Nouadhibou scores more

15%

ES Setif at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

A. Deghmoum

56'

M. M'Changama← E. Teguedi

58'

K. Darfalou← D. Lomotey

84'

K. Darfalou

88'

A. Chighaly← F. Faidine

90'

I. Hachoud← A. Djabou

90'

Y. Ouassa← M. Bakrar

ES

Nouadhibou

22

15

20

14

3

25

▼

Faidine

10

▼

23

5

11

9

1

18

13

20

10

▼

14

7

6

28

▼

Lomotey

15

⚽

Deghmoum

32

▼

Bakrar

Manager: N. Kouki

58'▲K. Darfalou←▼D. Lomotey

90'▲I. Hachoud←▼A. Djabou

90'▲Y. Ouassa←▼M. Bakrar

ES Setif substitutes

34Darfalou24Hachoud3Ouassa5Ziti19Dali30Boudiaf31Fellahi33Mohra8Ferhani

Manager: M. Njoya

56'▲M. M'Changama←▼E. Teguedi

88'▲A. Chighaly←▼F. Faidine

Nouadhibou substitutes

26M'Changama29Chighaly6id12Mokhtar21Mohamed2Kalonji17Dépodé16Boubacar4Abd