Notts County 2–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

2/8/2025

League Two · Round 31Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Notts County49%

×Draw24%

Morecambe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.19

Notts County

1.68

Morecambe

1.19

Notts County creates 41% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 112 away

1.60

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Notts County

1.60

Morecambe

1.10

allows per match

Notts County

1.28

Morecambe

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

73%

Notts County or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

51%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

81%

Notts County 2+ goals

50%

Notts County 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

64%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.60 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Notts County scores more

49%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

27%

Notts County at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff