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Morecambe vs Notts County — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Notts County
Notts County
9/28/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Mazuma Mobile Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Morecambe40%
×Draw25%
Notts County35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.46
Notts County
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 94 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Notts County
1.38

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Notts County
1.60

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
65%
Morecambe or Notts County
75%
Draw or Notts County
60%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
19%
Notts County wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
77%
Morecambe 2+ goals
43%
Morecambe 3+ goals
18%
Notts County 1+ goals
74%
Notts County 2+ goals
39%
Notts County 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
53%
Notts County (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Notts County attack 1.38 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more
40%
level
25%
Notts County scores more
35%

Morecambe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Notts County

Morecambe and Notts County drew 1-1 in League Two on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.