Notts County 1–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

M. Dennis 46'

9/6/2025

League Two · Round 7Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Notts County49%

×Draw25%

Fleetwood Town26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Notts County

1.63

Fleetwood Town

1.11

Notts County creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

1.20

1.02

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Notts County

1.83

Fleetwood Town

1.20

allows per match

Notts County

1.02

Fleetwood Town

1.43

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Notts County-0.54scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

74%

Notts County or Fleetwood Town

75%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

51%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

26%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

80%

Notts County 2+ goals

48%

Notts County 3+ goals

22%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

67%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

30%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

66%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.83 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 + Notts County defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Notts County scores more

49%

level

25%

Fleetwood Town scores more

26%

Notts County at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Roos

Notts County · G

8.2

Match Events

42'

46'

52'

53'

61'

66'

73'

75'

J. Norwood← W. Davies

77'

S. Robertson← T. Iorpenda

77'

79'

84'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsFleetwood

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots13

9Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target6

4Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

388Total Passes288

283Accurate Passes195

73%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1