Fleetwood Town 1–2 Notts County: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Notts County

W. Davies 65'

M. Dennis 70'

A. Jatta 38'

1/31/2026

League Two · Round 30Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Fleetwood Town51%

×Draw26%

Notts County23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

Fleetwood Town

1.54

Notts County

0.94

Fleetwood Town creates 64% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.52

creates per match

0.92

0.96

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Notts County

0.92

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Notts County

1.55

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less

Notts County+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

77%

Fleetwood Town or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

49%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

26%

Notts County wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

79%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

45%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Notts County 1+ goals

61%

Notts County 2+ goals

24%

Notts County 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

69%

Notts County (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Notts County away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Notts County defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Notts County attack 0.92 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

51%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

23%

Fleetwood Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Helm

Fleetwood Town · F

7.9

Match Events

38'

A. Jatta↳ J. Jones

46'

S. Robertson← T. Hall

52'

56'

59'

61'

61'

M. Dennis← T. Iorpenda

61'

64'

65'

70'

70'

79'

O. Devonport← C. Evans

79'

L. Ness← N. Tsaroulla

81'

Oliver Norburn

87'

L. Roberts← J. Powell

90+1'

C. McLean← M. Virtue-Thick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodNotts

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots8

0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.53

2Corners8

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots8

2On Target3

4Off Target2

4Blocked3

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

408Total Passes350

282Accurate Passes238

69%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2