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Notts County vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Notts County
Notts County
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
11/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Notts County47%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.61
Crawley Town
1.18

Notts County creates 36% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 158 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.60
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

Notts County
1.28
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
72%
Notts County or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
53%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
24%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
80%
Notts County 2+ goals
48%
Notts County 3+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
69%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
33%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
63%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.60 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Notts County scores more
47%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
28%

Notts County at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Notts County 3–1 Crawley Town

Notts County beat Crawley Town 3-1 in League Two on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Meadow Lane in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.