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Crawley Town vs Notts County — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Notts County
Notts County
1/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 27The Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Crawley Town42%
×Draw25%
Notts County33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.50
Notts County
1.29

Crawley Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 94 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Notts County
1.38

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Notts County
1.60

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
67%
Crawley Town or Notts County
75%
Draw or Notts County
58%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
21%
Notts County wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
78%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
44%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
19%
Notts County 1+ goals
72%
Notts County 2+ goals
37%
Notts County 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
56%
Notts County (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Notts County attack 1.38 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crawley Town scores more
42%
level
25%
Notts County scores more
33%

Crawley Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crawley Town 1–2 Notts County

Notts County beat Crawley Town 2-1 in League Two on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at The Broadfield Stadium in Crawley.