Notts County 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

C. Grant 3'

T. Simpson 48'

2/18/2025

League Two · Round 19Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Notts County56%

×Draw23%

Colchester22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.06

Notts County

1.84

Colchester

1.06

Notts County creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

1.11

1.02

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Notts County

1.83

Colchester

1.11

allows per match

Notts County

1.02

Colchester

1.85

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Notts County-0.54scores less

Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

78%

Notts County or Colchester

77%

Draw or Colchester

44%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

32%

Colchester wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

84%

Notts County 2+ goals

55%

Notts County 3+ goals

28%

Colchester 1+ goals

65%

Colchester 2+ goals

29%

Colchester 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

72%

Colchester (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.83 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

Colchester attack 1.11 + Notts County defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Notts County scores more

56%

level

23%

Colchester scores more

22%

Notts County at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Bass

Notts County · G

7.7

Match Events

3'

C. Grant↳ K. Gordon

48'

T. Simpson

64'

Jamie McDonnell

69'

K. Vincent-Young← O. Edwards

69'

L. Taylor← T. Simpson

73'

W. Jarvis← N. Tsaroulla

73'

C. Whitaker← C. Edwards

73'

M. Traoré← C. Grant

74'

R. Cundy← R. McDonald

76'

Robbie Cundy

78'

Mandela Egbo

81'

J. Gordon← H. Anderson

90+2'

A. Read← E. Bishop

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsColchester

Overview

71%Possession29%

14Total Shots11

8Corners3

3Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target5

5Off Target3

7Blocked3

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

628Total Passes262

556Accurate Passes200

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

3Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1