Notts County 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

M. Langstaff 54'

4/20/2024

League Two · Round 45Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Notts County54%

×Draw23%

Colchester23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.11

Notts County

1.82

Colchester

1.11

Notts County creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.21

1.02

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Notts County

1.83

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Notts County

1.02

Colchester

1.81

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Notts County-0.54scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

77%

Notts County or Colchester

77%

Draw or Colchester

46%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

30%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

84%

Notts County 2+ goals

54%

Notts County 3+ goals

27%

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

30%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

70%

Colchester (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.83 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

Colchester attack 1.21 + Notts County defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Notts County scores more

54%

level

23%

Colchester scores more

23%

Notts County at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Crowley

Notts County · M

8.5

Match Events

53'

Jay Mingi

54'

M. Langstaff

61'

J. Akinde← T. Hopper

68'

C. Wilkinson← J. Richardson

71'

C. Scott← M. Langstaff

84'

D. McGoldrick← J. OBrien

89'

Jodi Jones

90+4'

Arthur Read

90+2'

Noah Chilvers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsColchester

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots10

8Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target5

8Off Target2

5Blocked3

13Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

673Total Passes310

613Accurate Passes247

91%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides5