Notts County 5–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Cheltenham

T. Hall 90'

J. Wilson 72' (OG)

T. Iorpenda 66'

M. Palmer 28'

J. Jones 16'

I. Hutchinson 35', 10'

3/21/2026

League Two · Round 39Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Notts County49%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Notts County

1.52

Cheltenham

1.02

Notts County creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.01

1.03

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Notts County

1.64

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Notts County

1.03

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Notts County-0.31scores less

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

75%

Notts County or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

51%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

78%

Notts County 2+ goals

45%

Notts County 3+ goals

20%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

64%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

27%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

66%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.64 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Notts County defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Notts County scores more

49%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

25%

Notts County at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Palmer

Notts County · M

9.0

Match Events

10'

I. Hutchinson↳ J. Davison

16'

J. Jones↳ M. Palmer

28'

M. Palmer↳ L. Macari

35'

I. Hutchinson↳ H. Ashfield

46'

Lewis Macari

49'

Harry Ashfield

59'

Jacob Bedeau

65'

Q. Kouhyar← N. Tsaroulla

65'

O. Norburn← C. Grant

65'

K. Bennetts← H. Tangen

66'

T. Iorpenda↳ M. Palmer

72'

J. WilsonOwn goal

74'

T. Hall← J. Jones

75'

L. Ness← R. McDonald

75'

R. Broom← H. Ashfield

75'

G. Miller← J. Davison

75'

C. Deeming← L. Young

81'

Sam Sherring

85'

G. Nurse← J. Bickerstaff

85'

90+2'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsCheltenham

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots7

1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.64

7Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target3

7Off Target0

3Blocked4

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

565Total Passes396

500Accurate Passes321

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2